Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans

Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick’s swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments.     

Multilocus and morphological analysis of south-eastern Iberian Wall lizards (Squamata,Podarcis)

The phylogenetic relationships among the wall lizards of the Podarcis hispanicus complex that inhabit the south-east (SE) of the Iberian Peninsula and other lineages of the complex remain unclear. In this study, four mitochondrial and two nuclear markers were used to study genetic relationships within this complex. The phylogenetic analyses based on mtDNA gene trees constructed with ML and BI, and a species tree using *BEAST support three divergent clades in this region: the Valencia, Galera and Albacete/Murcia lineages. These three lineages were also corroborated in species delimitation analyses based on mtDNA using bPTP, mPTP, GMYC, ABGD and BAPS. Bayesian inference species delimitation method (BPP) based on both nuclear data and a combined data set (mtDNA + nuclear) showed high posterior probabilities for these three SE lineages (≥0.94) and another Bayesian analysis (STACEY) based on combined data set recovered the same three groups in this region. Divergence time dating of the species tree provided an estimated divergence of the Galera lineage from the other SE group (Podarcis vaucheri, (Albacete/Murcia, Valencia)) at 12.48 Ma. During this period, the Betic–Rifian arc was isolated, which could have caused the isolation of the Galera form distributed to the south of the Betic Corridor. Although lizards from the Albacete/Murcia and Galera lineage are morphologically similar, they clearly represent distinct genetic lineages. The noteworthy separation of the Galera lineage enables us to conclude that this lineage must be considered as a new full species.     

How propagule size and environmental suitability jointly determine establishment success: a test using dung beetle introductions

Both the size of founding populations (propagule size) and environmental suitability are known to influence whether a species newly introduced to a location will establish a self-sustaining population. However, these two factors do not operate independently: it is the interaction between propagule size and environmental suitability that determines the probability an introduced population will establish. Here I use the example of dung beetle introductions to Australia to illustrate the importance of this interaction. I first describe equations that model establishment success jointly as a function of propagule size and environmental suitability. I then show how these equations provide insight into the different outcomes observed in two dung beetle species widely introduced to Australia. In one species, variation in propagule size had relatively little influence on establishment success due to large variation in environmental suitability, leading to an essentially bimodal outcome: sites were either very suitable for establishment and introductions succeeded, or sites were unsuitable and introductions failed regardless of propagule size. For the second species, there was much less variation among locations in environmental suitability, leading to propagule size having a strong influence on establishment success. These examples highlight how the interplay between environmental suitability and founding population size is central to determining the probability an introduced species will establish.     

Complement Factor H-Related Protein 3 Serum Levels Are Low Compared to Factor H and Mainly Determined by Gene Copy Number Variation in CFHR3

The major human complement regulator in blood, complement factor H (FH), has several closely related proteins, called FH-related (FHR) proteins. As all FHRs lack relevant complement regulatory activity, their physiological role is not well understood. FHR protein 3 (FHR-3) has been suggested to compete with FH for binding to Neisseria meningitidis, thereby affecting complement-mediated clearance. Clearly, the in vivo outcome of such competition greatly depends on the FH and FHR-3 concentrations. While FH levels have been established, accurate FHR-3 levels were never unequivocally reported to date. Moreover, CFHR3 gene copy numbers commonly vary, which may impact the FHR-3 concentration. Hence, we generated five anti-FHR-3 mAbs to specifically measure FHR-3 in human healthy donors of which we determined the gene copy number variation at the CFH/CFHR locus. Finally, we examined the acute-phase response characteristics of FHR-3 in a small sepsis cohort. We determined FHR-3 levels to have a mean of 19 nM and that under normal conditions the copy number of CFHR3 correlates to a very large extent with the FHR-3 serum levels. On average, FHR-3 was 132-fold lower compared to the FH concentration in the same serum samples and FHR-3 did not behave as a major acute phase response protein.